In the past few months the East Asian coast has been hit by a relentless string of tropical cyclones, each amplified by the current El Niño. From Typhoon Champi’s 295 km/h (193 mph) winds to Super‑Typhoon Dolphin’s 16‑day trek across the Pacific, the weather pattern has turned a seasonal hazard into a deadly emergency.
El Niño’s role in the storm surge
The UK Met Office predicts this year’s El Niño to be “the strongest in living memory”, and the Pacific Ocean is now “burning with fever”, says Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines’ national weather bureau. Warm waters in the eastern Pacific raise the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric, meaning storms retain more intensity for longer. This year the ACE forecast for Southeast and East Asia is nearly double the 30‑year average.
Impact across the region
Typhoon Champi, a Category‑5 equivalent, skirted Taiwan’s north‑eastern coast, sparing the island a direct hit but still prompting the cancellation of hundreds of flights in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan. In the Philippines’ Batanes archipelago, highways were closed as massive waves crashed ashore, while Okinawa in southern Japan saw power cut to 15,000 homes.
June saw Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos race toward Japan’s eastern coast simultaneously, forcing the evacuation of about one million people. July’s Tropical Storm Narra submerged villages along China’s Guangxi coast, displacing tens of thousands. August brought Super‑Typhoon Dolphin, which slammed into eastern China, causing heavy floods and dozens of casualties, followed by Typhoon Saudel that made landfall in three southeastern Chinese cities within a week.
Why storms are getting stronger
El Niño shifts wind patterns, causing typhoons to form farther east than usual. The warmer sea surface also means storms linger over hot water, gaining strength. Sea‑surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rose to 4 °C above normal in September—the highest since records began in 1949—exceeding the previous record of 3.6 °C set in December 1997. China’s climate agency warns that these temperatures will likely continue rising over the next three months.
Human and economic toll
Dozens have been killed, and thousands have been forced from their homes. In Japan, 15,000 households lost electricity; in China, villages were submerged and transport networks shut. The repeated onslaught has also crippled agriculture, threatening rice production and prompting governments to distribute fertilizers and other aid.
Preparing for a prolonged season
Authorities are urging residents to stockpile food, secure outdoor furniture that can become projectiles, and identify vulnerable areas. Japan’s well‑resourced agencies have been able to evacuate people swiftly, but neighboring countries face greater challenges. The United Nations Development Programme warns that the window for effective El Niño response is closing, emphasizing the need for resilient infrastructure and social protection.
Uncertainty and future outlook
While the current data link El Niño to the heightened storm activity, scientists caution that other climate factors also play a role. Simulations by Manila‑based climatologist Rafaela Jane Delfino suggest that higher temperatures could increase total accumulated rainfall by 26 %, but the exact magnitude of future storms remains uncertain. Continued monitoring of Pacific temperatures and wind patterns will be essential to refine forecasts.
As the El Niño persists into early next year, the region must brace for more intense typhoons. The combination of record‑warm oceans and shifting atmospheric currents creates a volatile environment where each new storm could test the resilience built over decades of experience.
