Israel’s upcoming election is shaping up as a contest not only between the entrenched right‑wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu and the centrist “Change Bloc” of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, but also as a potential showdown where Arab‑majority parties could become king‑makers. Recent opinion polls indicate that Arab lists may win roughly 13‑14 seats, a share that could prove pivotal if neither of the two main blocs secures a clear majority.
Why Arab Parties Matter This Time
Historically, Arab Israelis—who make up about one‑fifth of Israel’s population—have suffered low turnout, often due to disaffection and a sense that their votes do not translate into political influence. This election, however, sees a concerted effort on the ground: students in Nazareth are distributing leaflets urging young Arab voters to head to the polls, framing the vote as a chance to “bring down” what they describe as an “extremist” government.
Both the Joint Arab List (a coalition of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al) and the United Arab List (led by Mansour Abbas) are projected to capture the aforementioned 13‑14 seats. While the Joint List emphasizes equal rights, an end to the occupation, and a two‑state solution, Abbas’s party has taken a more pragmatic stance, seeking a “position of influence” rather than mere representation. In 2021, Abbas already served as a minister in a short‑lived coalition, signalling his willingness to work with Jewish partners.
Coalition Calculus for the Major Blocs
All but one of the leading Jewish parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Arab parties. Eisenkot, for example, has cited a “lack of shared values” as a reason to exclude Arab lists from any coalition. Netanyahu’s right‑wing coalition, which includes ultra‑Orthodox and far‑right factions, also maintains a hard‑line stance against partnering with Arab groups.
Given that each bloc is projected to win around 50 seats, the remaining 20‑plus seats will be contested among smaller parties, including the Arab lists. If either bloc cannot reach the 61‑seat threshold on its own, it may be forced to reconsider its pledge not to work with Arab parties, or to negotiate a confidence‑and‑supply agreement that grants Arab legislators policy concessions in exchange for support.
Social Tensions and the Election Narrative
The backdrop to this electoral drama is the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attack and the ensuing war in Gaza. The conflict has deepened mistrust toward Israel’s Arab minority, with reports of discrimination, arrests, and even racially motivated attacks on Arab professionals. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s pledge to “Judaise” parts of the Galilee and Negev—areas with dense Arab populations—has further inflamed tensions.
Netanyahu’s campaign has employed stark messaging, such as billboards that juxtapose “Right or Palestine,” and AI‑generated videos that portray opposition leaders allegedly embracing Arab figures. These tactics aim to portray Arab parties as a threat to Israel’s Jewish character, a narrative that many Arab Israelis reject as “racist” and politically motivated.
Potential Outcomes and What They Mean
- Arab parties as decisive partners: If neither bloc reaches a majority, Arab legislators could extract policy concessions—perhaps on budget allocations for Arab municipalities, policing reforms, or the contentious “Judaisation” plans—in exchange for their support.
- Continued exclusion: Should the major parties hold firm on their refusal to work with Arab lists, Israel may face a stalemate, potentially leading to another short‑lived government or a repeat of the 2022‑2023 political deadlock.
- Shift in Arab strategy: Abbas’s decision to place a Jewish former police official, Yoav Segalovitz, as his second‑on‑the‑list signals a willingness to bridge communal divides. If this approach gains traction, it could reshape future coalition dynamics, making Arab parties more than just a “safety net” for opposition forces.
Conclusion
The upcoming election may well be the first in which Arab‑majority parties hold the balance of power, not merely as symbolic representatives but as potential architects of Israel’s next government. Their influence will hinge on whether the dominant Jewish blocs can overcome internal fractures without resorting to the very alliances they have long dismissed. For Arab Israelis, the vote is being framed as a decisive moment—one that could either cement their marginalization or usher in a new era of political relevance.
