The British government announced this week that the "one in, one out" agreement with France – a pilot scheme designed to exchange asylum seekers for an equal number of legal migrants – has been scrapped. The decision marks the end of a controversial experiment that began just over a year ago and has sparked debate over its effectiveness and operational challenges.
Background of the pilot
The scheme allowed the United Kingdom to return some migrants who arrived by small boat across the English Channel, while simultaneously agreeing to accept the same number of people from France who were deemed to have a legitimate claim to come to Britain. In practice, only around 1,500 people were removed to France during the pilot’s lifespan.
Performance and scale
Officials acknowledged that the programme never reached the scale originally envisioned. A Home Office spokesperson said the pilot “did not reach the desired scale” and that “lessons learned” would be used to accelerate efforts to return small‑boat migrants without a right to remain. The government highlighted that small‑boat crossings have fallen sharply, with 19,135 people crossing the Channel between 1 January and 27 September 2026 – a 42 % drop compared with the same period the previous year.
- Average boat size (28 Sept 2025‑27 Sept 2026): 67 people per vessel, more than double the 2021 figure.
- Small‑boat arrivals accounted for 40 % of asylum applications (July 2025‑June 2026).
- At least 84 deaths were recorded in 2024 while attempting the crossing, according to the United Nations.
- People from Eritrea made up 18 % of arrivals (July 2025‑June 2026).
- Potential victims of trafficking or modern slavery: 2,335 (Jan‑Dec 2025).
Reasons for termination
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood admitted the scheme “has not been without its challenges”, noting that “scaling up very large numbers of removals every week into the French system” proved operationally difficult. The French Interior Ministry confirmed ongoing discussions about the terms of exit from the agreement. Moreover, the Home Office indicated that the scheme’s cost – roughly £56,000 per person returned to France – was a factor in the decision to cease processing new cases.
Continuing cooperation
Despite ending the exchange, the UK government stressed that it will keep working with France to tackle illegal small‑boat crossings. The spokesperson added that “real progress” has been made, citing the significant reduction in crossing numbers. Flights to swiftly remove small‑boat migrants from the UK are set to continue in the coming weeks, applying the lessons learned from the pilot.
Implications for migration policy
With the pilot discontinued, the UK will rely on other mechanisms to manage irregular arrivals. The Home Office’s pledge to “smash the gangs” behind the crossings suggests a shift toward more targeted enforcement rather than reciprocal exchange. Analysts note that the scheme’s limited scale – returning only a fraction of the total illegal immigration – meant its impact on overall migration figures was modest.
Uncertainty and next steps
Uncertainty: The exact terms of the UK‑France disengagement remain under negotiation, and it is unclear how future bilateral arrangements will be structured. Additionally, while the pilot’s cessation removes one avenue for returning migrants, the effectiveness of the forthcoming accelerated removal flights has yet to be demonstrated.
In summary, the abandonment of the "one in, one out" scheme reflects both practical difficulties and a strategic recalibration by the UK government. As small‑boat crossings continue to decline, the focus now appears to be on direct enforcement and bilateral cooperation without the exchange component that defined the pilot.