In a joint statement that underscores the fragility of the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) grip on power, the premiers of eight German states have publicly backed Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The endorsement arrives amid mounting speculation about Merz’s tenure, a dip in his personal popularity, and a surge for the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in regional elections.

What the premiers said

The leaders of Schleswig‑Holstein, Saxony, Hesse, Rhineland‑Palatinate, Saxony‑Anhalt, Thuringia, Berlin and North Rhine‑Westphalia issued a collective note that restoring trust in the CDU “lies in listening and taking political action, not in debates over personnel.” They added that “now more than ever, Germany’s political landscape needs stability” and called for a “stable and effective federal government with its own majority in the Bundestag.”

Why the endorsement matters

Merz has been chancellor for only 16 months, and his approval ratings have slipped to double‑digit lows – a recent Bild poll recorded just 14 % of respondents saying he is right for the job. At the same time, the AfD has made historic gains, capturing 43.8 % of the vote in Saxony‑Anhalt while the CDU fell to 17.2 %. Those figures mark the first post‑World‑War II instance of a far‑right party approaching control of a German state.

Two further state elections – in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑West Pomerania – are slated for Sunday. Both are seen as litmus tests for Merz’s leadership. In Berlin, the race is tightly contested between the CDU, Die Linke and the AfD, while in Mecklenburg‑West Pomerania polls place the AfD ahead of the centre‑left SPD but still short of an outright majority.

Potential consequences for the CDU

If the CDU suffers defeats in these elections, the party could lose its foothold in key western states and be forced to confront a leadership crisis. The worst‑case scenario outlined by analysts would see the CDU absent from the Mecklenburg‑West Pomerania parliament and unable to form a governing coalition in Berlin.

Within the CDU, speculation about Merz’s successor has already surfaced. Names such as Markus Söder (Bavarian premier and CSU leader), North Rhine‑Westphalia premier Hendrik Wüst, and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt have been floated as possible heirs. However, no senior figure has yet publicly challenged Merz, and the party’s internal mechanisms for mid‑term leadership changes remain limited.

Broader political context

The endorsement underscores a strategic choice: to project unity and stability rather than open a public debate on leadership. This mirrors Merz’s own rhetoric, which has framed the AfD as a “destructive force” and accused its migration policy of “ethnic cleansing” of skilled workers – comments that prompted the AfD to file a defamation complaint.

Beyond domestic politics, Merz has secured international praise for a €500 billion defence infrastructure fund, positioning himself as a staunch defender of European security. Yet his domestic standing remains precarious, with the CDU’s electoral fortunes increasingly tied to the outcome of the upcoming state polls.

Uncertainty and outlook

Uncertainty: The precise impact of the state elections on Merz’s tenure cannot be forecast with certainty. While the premiers’ statement signals a desire for continuity, a significant loss for the CDU could reignite internal calls for a leadership change.

Outlook: Should the CDU manage to retain or improve its position in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑West Pomerania, Merz may consolidate his authority and steer the party through the AfD’s rise. Conversely, a poor showing could accelerate discussions about a “Kanzlertausch” – a chancellor swap – and bring new contenders to the fore.

Key take‑aways

In a political climate where the CDU’s fortunes are increasingly uncertain, the premiers’ endorsement is both a rallying cry for unity and a reminder that the party’s future may hinge on the outcomes of a single weekend of regional voting.