South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is under intense pressure as the country votes in a highly contested round of local elections. Voters across the nation’s 300 municipalities are deciding whether the party can arrest a steady slide that has seen its share of the vote fall from a historic 70 % in 2004 to roughly 40 % in recent national contests, and possibly to as low as 30 % in these local polls.
Why the ANC’s decline matters
The ANC’s fortunes have been tied to the delivery of basic services – water, electricity and waste collection – that municipalities are responsible for. In townships such as Alexandra, near Johannesburg, residents describe overflowing rubbish, cracked roads and unreliable power. These service‑delivery failures have fueled public anger and contributed to a broader perception of corruption, unemployment and crime, all of which have eroded the party’s support base.
Polling evidence of a shrinking base
Several surveys cited by the BBC point to a continuing downward trend. An Ipsos poll puts the ANC’s current backing at about 30 %, down from the 46 % it achieved in the 2021 local elections. By contrast, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is projected to rise to roughly 25 % of the vote, up from 22 % previously. These figures suggest the ANC could perform “the worst it’s ever done” in a nationwide contest, according to political analyst Melanie Verwoerd.
Coalition politics and the future of governance
South Africa’s eight major metros are now largely run by coalition governments, with the ANC often the largest single party but lacking an outright majority. Verwoerd warns that “stable coalitions” will be essential, noting that the ANC and DA have previously shared power at the national level. Dr Levy Ndou adds that a coalition between the ANC and DA appears “unavoidable” in most metros, though the exact composition will depend on the final vote tallies.
Local voices reflect broader discontent
BBC reporters captured the mood on the ground. In Alexandra, 18‑year‑old first‑time voter Sanele Ntombela expressed hope that his vote could bring change, while 33‑year‑old resident Zandile Mncube said she would abstain because “things have gotten worse over the years.” Similar complaints were echoed by Soweto resident Mduduzi Makhubo, who cited “arrogance” from local leaders and a desire to “change the status quo.”
What the results could mean for the ANC
If the party’s support continues to erode, it may be forced to confront internal calls for reform and to reconsider its strategy ahead of the next national election. President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly dismissed the notion of a “downward spiral,” insisting the ANC is “going higher and higher.” Yet analysts argue that the local elections will serve as a “verdict … and judgment” on that claim.
Key take‑aways
- Support for the ANC has dropped from 70 % in 2004 to around 40 % in recent national votes.
- Current polls suggest the party may be as low as 30 % in the local elections.
- Service‑delivery failures in townships and metros are a major driver of voter dissatisfaction.
- Coalition governments are now the norm in South Africa’s biggest cities, and the ANC’s future influence will depend on its ability to negotiate partnerships.
As the vote count proceeds, observers will be watching not only which parties win individual municipalities, but also whether the ANC can stem the tide of decline that has defined its recent electoral history.
