Analysis: In early October 2024, Ethiopia announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours, accusing them of activities that threatened national security. Eritrea replied hours later by severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, describing Addis Ababa’s move as "astounding" and stating it had no option but to reciprocate. The diplomatic fallout unfolded alongside a sharp escalation of armed conflict in Ethiopia’s northern regions, where federal forces are battling the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allied militias across Tigray, Afar and Amhara.
Diplomatic rupture
The two countries, once allies during the 2020‑2022 Tigray war, have drifted apart over Ethiopia’s push for direct access to the Red Sea. Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of supporting an alliance of armed groups that seeks to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, a charge Eritrea has repeatedly denied. In response to the expulsion order, Eritrea’s foreign ministry announced the severing of all diplomatic ties, warning of "negative corollaries" from the decision.
Military escalation in the north
Heavy fighting resumed in northern Ethiopia last week, resulting in more than 50 civilian deaths, according to local reports. In the town of Alamata, a doctor told the BBC that at least 52 civilians were killed during three days of intense combat. The conflict now involves a coalition of six armed movements, including the TPLF and the Fano militia from Amhara, whose stated goal is to remove the current government from power.
Both sides blame each other for the latest hostilities. The TPLF claims it is responding to a federal offensive and drone strikes, while the Ethiopian government alleges that Tigrayan fighters launched attacks after seizing federally administered airports in the region. A pro‑government militia commander also alleged that Eritrean soldiers were fighting on the front lines, though the BBC has not independently verified this claim.
Explosions in Addis Ababa
Hours after the diplomatic announcements, powerful explosions were heard overnight in Ethiopia’s capital, near the military headquarters and the intelligence service complex. Residents reported that the blasts were loud enough to trigger car alarms. A source linked to the opposition alliance told Reuters that its forces had carried out drone attacks in the capital, but Ethiopian authorities have not confirmed the cause of the explosions, and no official casualty figures have been released.
Regional and humanitarian implications
The African Union has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise restraint and resolve their differences through diplomatic channels, warning that further destabilisation could spill over into the wider Horn of Africa. The United Nations has highlighted that the deteriorating security situation is severely disrupting humanitarian work in northern Ethiopia, with drone activity and air strikes endangering civilians, vital infrastructure and aid operations.
- Humanitarian access: The UN has called on all parties to guarantee safe and unhindered access for aid delivery.
- Potential for wider conflict: Escalating hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea risk drawing in neighboring states, especially given disputes over Red Sea access.
- Information gaps: Independent verification remains difficult because journalists have limited access to conflict zones and communications are frequently disrupted.
Outlook
While the immediate trigger for the diplomatic break appears to be Ethiopia’s expulsion of Eritrean diplomats, the underlying tensions over regional influence and access to the Red Sea suggest a deeper strategic rivalry. The continuation of heavy fighting in Tigray, Afar and Amhara, combined with the recent explosions in Addis Ababa, raises the risk of a broader regional confrontation.
Uncertainty: The exact perpetrators of the Addis Ababa explosions remain unconfirmed, and the extent of Eritrean military involvement on the ground is based on unverified militia statements. Further developments will depend on whether diplomatic channels can be reopened or if the conflict escalates further.