With less than a week left before the November 3 midterm elections, the United States is witnessing an unprecedented early‑voting wave. The University of Florida Election Lab reports that more than 43 million Americans have already cast a ballot, a figure that dwarfs previous midterm turnouts and puts the race on track to outpace both the 2020 presidential election and the record‑setting 2018 midterms.

Scale of the surge

Data shows that roughly four to five million early votes are being cast each day, a rate far higher than in most prior contests. Texas alone has contributed a staggering 5.8 million early ballots, surpassing its 2022 total by about 1.75 million voters. These numbers suggest that the Lone Star state could become a decisive factor in determining which party controls the Senate for the remainder of the current presidential term.

Demographic shifts

Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab database, highlights notable changes among specific voter groups. Early voting is up among Hispanic and Black communities in states that require race data—North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida—while turnout among white voters remains roughly on par with 2022 levels. In Texas, counties bordering Mexico—where Hispanic residents make up more than 90 % of the population—are projected to exceed their 2022 early‑vote totals.

Party affiliation trends

Among the roughly half of states that collect party affiliation, the early‑vote mix is as follows:

McDonald notes that the rise in unaffiliated early voters “does not show which candidates they chose,” but the overall increase aligns with broader patterns of heightened engagement among voters who traditionally lean Democratic, especially communities of colour.

Why early voting is booming

The expansion of early‑voting options—both in‑person and by mail—took off during the COVID‑19 pandemic, and the habit appears to be sticking. In the 2020 election, more than two‑thirds of all ballots were cast early, with half of those submitted by mail. Today, voters are increasingly preferring in‑person early voting, and they are returning their ballots sooner than in prior cycles. McDonald speculates that concerns about the reliability of postal voting may be nudging voters toward the ballot‑box, though he admits there is no concrete data to confirm this hypothesis.

Local records and the road ahead

Early‑voting milestones are already being celebrated at the municipal level. Minneapolis, for example, announced a record early‑voting turnout for a non‑presidential election. Nevertheless, the surge is expected to taper off as states close early‑voting windows in the days leading up to Election Day.

Implications for the midterms

Analysts warn that the sheer volume of early votes could reshape campaign strategies. Candidates now have less time to react to voter sentiment, and the demographic tilt toward Democratic‑leaning groups may influence down‑ballot races, especially in swing states like Texas. While the final tally remains uncertain, the early‑voting surge underscores a broader trend: Americans are turning out in record numbers, and they are doing so earlier than ever before.

These observations are drawn directly from the University of Florida Election Lab’s reporting and statements from Professor Mike McDonald, as cited in the source material.